THE MARKET CHANGES IT MIND

The US market keeps on declining this week after trying to go above 1255/1265. In a week time, many gurus turned from bulls to bears, its amazing that how fast they change their mind. Just last Friday- 9 Dec 2011 when market rebounced to 1255, many gurus are looking at 1307/1300 target this week. I remembered one of them say year-end will hit 1330. And now, they say year-end target is 1210, a difference of 120 point in SPX. Madness. The market  often surprises so many gurus. As a retail trader, I guess I really need to stop listening to gurus:-).The best is still set your own rules and follow your own rules, but comfortable rules can only be established only after many trials. Sigh, Why learning to trust myself other than others is soooooooo difficult.

MARKET TURNED AND LESSONS

Its so so difficult to trust yourself. I have proved that I loved to give up at the lowest point and opt for easy solutions. Just dont not know how to manage this weaknesses, plain lazy and lack determination. The good thing about this week is that I have discovered that "breakout" is not for me, I will always do very badly at breakout as its not the style that I have used in share buying, I am more a suitable  in trading at extreme market range. I have also proved that I have very bad memory.

THANKSGIVING DAY

Good that there is no trading on thanksgiving day. I could take a break.The market surprised me by moving down to 116, I thought it may stablise around 118. Well, now, it seems like everybody is saying will retest Oct low, next year DOW5000, but just three weeks ago these people say DOW will move up. So, what I can learn from here is always act only when market goes extremes, no action needs to be taken when market is in middle range and a triangle may means break out or break down. And when market goes up very sharply, it may come down sharply also. A few weeks ago, I am supposed to wait for this 116 and buy, yet I did not do it????

 The whole thing of DOW5000 still look impossible to me at this point of time. DOW5000 could means a few more banks go bust or one EU countires go bust, Asia are still holding onto the slow recovery. US overall economy is still positive. Well, lets wait and see.

BEARS KILLED MY TRADING ACCOUNT

US Market has been trending down since 16 Nov 2011, after hitting the 1250+, the downwards retracement was drastic.

As I am not very confident in trading of US markets yet, I have subscribed to some websites on comments of the US markets. Some traders started to give target of 1210 for S&P at 2011 year-end, and some have target of 1370 due to triangle pattern. Though they have so different targets, they can switch from bear to bull vice versa anytime. In short, these website I subscribed are not helpful to me to learn trading. Perhaps I should document down my analysis in a blog to see whether my decision making process will improve.

S&P has been down since last wed for a week already. So, it may bounce anytime.Its below 20 and 50pma. It need to move up to 50pma to resume the trend, or it need to produce a while candle to stop the fall. Need to wait for while candle to confirm. Next level is assumed to be 116.4. To me, the small section of the chart is very similair to Mar to Jun section, but in a more "coiled" manner. Lets wait and see. On rebounce, I should buy Puts to keep. China is unlikely to have hard landing as the Chinese government wont want to see hard landing also. Oct 2011 PM is 48 which is highly unfavourable, I presume that  the government will take action. The EU zone is a more problematic zone and nobody know what will happen next. The only  strategy is to learn like those websites- switch from bears to bulls and bulls to bears anytime..:-). But how to do that???